DCFの基礎、バランスシートの予想を作る(Forecast the Balance Sheet)

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DCFの基礎、バランスシートの予想を作る(Forecast the Balance Sheet)

Invested capital

Items Typical forecast driver Typical forecast ratio
Operating items Accounts receivable (AR売掛金) Revenues


Inventories Cost of goods sold (COGS) Inventories/COGS
Accounts payable(AP) Cost of goods sold (COGS) AP/COGS
Accued expenses Revenues Accued expenses/revenue
Net PP&E Revenues Net PP&E/
Goodwill and acquired intangibles Acquired revenues Goodwill and acquired intangibles/
Acquired revenues
Non-operating items Non operating assets None Growth in non-operating assets
Pension assets or liabilities None Trend toward zero
Deferred taxes Operating taxes or corresponding balance sheet item Change in operating deferred taxes/operating taxes, or deferred taxes/ corresponding balance sheet item




Stock Approach: Forecast end-of-year AR as a funciotn of revenues. ◎一般的
Flow Approach: Forecast the change in AR as a function of the growth in revenues.


Operating working capital
AR, Inventories, AP, accrued expenses. Non- operating itemsを含まない
Non-operating itemsの例: excess cash(Cash not needed to operate the business), Short-term debt, and dividends payable.


Property, plant and equipment

Consistent with our earlier argument concering stocks and flows, net PP&E should be forecasted as percentage of revenues.


1. Forecast PP&E as a percentage of revenues
2. Forecast depreciation, typically as a percentage of gross of net PP&E.
3. Calculate capital expenditures by summing the increase in net PP&E plys depreciation.


Capital expenditures = Net PP&E( Year T) – Net PP&E(Year T-1) + Deprecation (Year T)


For companies with low growth rates and improvements in capital efficiency, the resulting projections of capital expenditures may be negative (implying asset sales).
Although positive cashflows generated by asset sales are possible, they are unlikely.


Goodwill and acquired intangibles

A company records goodwill and acquired intangibles when the price it paid for an acquisition exceeds the target’s book value.
For most cases, we choose not to model potential acquisitions explicitly. so we set revenue growth from acquisitons equal to zero and hold goodwill constant as its current level.


Non-operating assets, debt and equity equivalents

Many nonoperating assets are valued using methods other than DCF, we usually create forecast of there items solely for the prupose of financial planning and cash management.
For instance, consider unfunded pensions. Management announces its intetion to reduce unfunded pensions by 50% over the next five years.
To value unfunded pensions, do not discount the projected outflows over the next 5 years. Instead, use the current actuarial assessments of the shortfall, which appear in the note on the pensions. The rate of reduction will have no valuation implications, but will affect the ability to pay dividends or may require additional debt at particular times.


Forecast the company’s source of financing


To complete the blance sheet, forecast teh company’s sources of financing.


Calculate Retained earnings.


Retained earnings (year T) = Retained earnins (Year T-1) + Net incomes (Year T) – Dividend(Year T)



Excess cash
Short term debt
Long term debt
newly issued debt
common stock


そのうち、Common stock, Long term debt, short term debtを、一定にする。
Set one of the remaining two items(Excess cash or newly issued debt) equal to zero.


Operating cash
Excess cash
Current assets


Net PP&E
Equity investments
Total assets


Accounts payable
Short-term debt
Current liabilities


Long term debt
Newly issued debt
Common stock
Retained earnings
Total liabilities and equity


Step 1: Determine retained earnings
Step 2: Test which is higher. assets excluding excess cash or liabilites and equity excluding newly issued debt.
Step 3: If assets excluding excess cash are higher, set excess cash equal to zero, and plug the difference with the newly issued debt. Otherwise, plug with excess cash.




How capital structure affects valuation



As growth drops, newly issued debt will drop to zero, and excess cash will become very large. But what if a drop in leverage is incosisitent with your long-term assessments concerning capital structure?


From a valuation perspective, this side ffects does not matter!


Excess cash and debt are not included as part of Free Cash Flow, so they do not affect the enterprise average cost.
Thus, only an adjustment to WACC will lead to a change in valuation.


To bring capital structure in the balance sheet in line with capital structure implied by WACC, adjust the dividend payout ratio or amount of net share repurchases.


For instance, as the dividend payout is increase, retained earnings will drop, and this should cause excess cash to drop as well.
By varying the payout ratio, you can also test the robustness of your free cash flow model.
Specifically, ROIC and FCF, and hence value, should not change when the dividend rate is adjusted.


How you choose to model the payout ratio depends on the requirements of the model.
In most situations, you can adjust the dividend payout ratio by hand when needed. (remember the ratio does not affect value but rather brings excess cash and newly issued debt closer to reality).


For more complex models, determine net debt (Total debt – excess cash) by applying the target net-debt-to-value ratio modeled in the WACC at each point in time.


Next, using the target debt-to-value ratio, solve for the required dividend payout.


To do this, howerer, a valuation must be perfomred in each forecast year and interated backward, – a time consuming process a for a feature that will not affect the final valuation.



企業価値評価 マッキンゼー・アンド・カンパニー、 ティム・コラー