同業他社比較を投資銀行でComparable companies or trading compsと言います。
IPOや、M&Aトランザクションの際によく用いるバリュエーションの手法です。
よく使うマルチプルは、PEかEV/EBITDAです。
特にEV/EBITDAは資本構造、税制、会計基準に影響されにくいので、M&A時の比較マルチプルとして一般的です。
同業他社比較のバリュエーションは、DCFなどのIntrinsic valuationと違って、市場で同様な企業がどのような評価を受けているか着目しているものです。
市況やそれぞれの企業特有の要素に影響されます。
同業他社比較分析の手順
１）Select the Universe of comparable companies 同業他社の選定と情報源
The foundation for performing trading comps.
Gain a sound understanding of the target.
Look for companies share business and financial characteristics on some fundamental level.
Business profile: Sector, products and services, customers, suppliers, end markets, distribution channels, geograpy.
Finance profile: size, profitablity (EBITDA, EBIT margin, growth, ROI, credit profile)
情報源：Annual(10-K), quarterly (10-Q), SEC filings, consensus research estimates, equity and fixed income research reports, press releases, earnings call transcripts, investor presentations, and corporate websites, fairness opinion, initiating coverage research report, senior bankers
Once the junior banker has done the legwork to craft and refine a robust list of comparables, a senior banker oftern provides the finishing touches in terms of more nuanced additions or delections.
Bloomberg BEst consensus estimates (EEB>GO)
2) Locate the necessary finanical information
LTM financial performance
SEC filings, 10-k,10-Q, 8-K, proxy statement
S-4, 424B, Registration statement/ prospectus
Euiqty research: commentary on non-recurring items and recent M&A and capital markets transactions, which are helpful for determining pro forma adjustments and normalizing financial data. They may also provide helpful sector and market information, as well as explicitly list the research analyst’s view on the company’s comparables universe.
Initiating coverage research reports tend to be more comprehensive than normal interim reports.
Bloomberg RES>GO
Consensus estimates EEB>GO
Earnings Estimates EE>GO
Research BRC>GO
Company Filings CF>GO
Share price BQ>GO
Credit Ratings CRPR>GO
3) Spread key statistics, ratios and trading multiples
Size（時価総額、EV、Sales、Gross profit、EBITDA、EBIT、純利益）
Profitability（Gross profit, EBITDA, EBIT, net income margin)
Growth profile (historical and estimated growth)
RoI (ROIC, ROE, ROA, and dividend yield)
Credit profile (Leverage ratio, coverage ratio, and credit ratings)
Equity value = share price * Fully diluted shares outstanding (basic outstanding shares + In the money options and warrants + In the Money convertible securiteis
Enterprice Value (EV ) = Equity Value + Total Debt + Preferred Stock + Noncontrolling interest – cash and cash equivalents
会社が100億円の社債を借りたら、EVが変わるか？答えは、変わりません。
EVは会社の資本構造と無関係です。起債したらTotal Debt & Cash and cash equivalentsが同時に増加するので、相殺します。
Theoretically, enterprise value is considered independent of capital structure, meaning that changes in a company’s capital structure do not affect its enterprise value. For example, if a company raises additional debt that is held on the BS as cash, its enterprise value remains constant as the new debt is offset by the increase in cash. Similarly, if a company issues equity and uses the proceeds to repay debt, the incremental equity value is offset by the decrease in debt. Therefore, these transactions are enterprise value neutral.
しかし、起債で調達したお金で仕入れたりすると、Cashが在庫資産になるので、EVが増加することになると考える。
ROIC = EBIT / (Average Net Debt +Equity)
LTM = Prior Fiscal year + Current Stub – Prior Stub
Adjustment for non-recurring items => See MD &A, must excercise discretion. Need to adjust tax-effect using effective tax rate
Sector Specific valuation multiples
Telecommunications- EV / Access lines, fiber miles, route miles
Media- EV / broadcast cash flow (BCF)
Retail/Restaurants – EV/EBITDAX Earnings before interest tax, D&A, Depletion, and exploration Expense
Financial institutions – Equity Value / Book Value, Equity Value / NAV (Net Asset Value)
Real estate/Retail – EV/ Squarefootage, Funds from Operations(FFO)(real estate) pershare, Cash availabe for distribtuion(real estate),
4) benchmark the comparable companies
5) Determine valuation
参考にした本は、Investment Banking
こちら、海外トップビジネススクールのM&A、コーポレートファイナンス授業の指定テキストです。
かなり投資銀行の実務に近い形でバリュエーションやブルームバーグの使い方を紹介しています。
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Investment Banking: Valuation, Leveraged Buyouts, and Mergers and Acquisitions (Wiley Finance) 新品価格 |
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