バリュエーションの基本
The value of a firm is based on its capacity to generate cash flows and the uncertainty associated with these cash flows.
ベンチャー企業の場合は、赤字、キャッシュフローが不確実ながらも高いバリュエーションを受けることがよくあります。
The problem with young firms is not that they lose money, have no history or do not have substantial tangible assets. It is that they are far earlier in their life cycles than established firms and often in some cases, the firms bening valued have an interesting idea that could be a commercial success but has not been tested yet. The value of a firm is sitll the PV of the expected CF from its assets, but those CF are likely to be much more difficult to estimate.
ベンチャー企業のステージ
Start-up
Expansion
High growth
Mature growth
Decline
ベンチャーキャピタルバリュエーション
Discounted terminal value = Estimated exit value / (1+ target return)^n
たとえば、ある会社の3年後の利益が2.5億円だとして、その業界のPEは10倍だとして、3年後の価値（Estimated exit Value）は25億円、
、ターゲットリターンは４０％だとしたら、現在価値は 25/(1+40%)^3=9.1億円になります。
Main drivers
-sustainable margins
-revenue growth
how long it will take the firm to reach a sustainable margin and reinvestment nees in stable growth.
-企業の成長段階に合わせてBetaの変化も考慮
参考にした本
 |
|
Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset (Wiley Finance) 新品価格 |
–AD–